Earlier this month, Nintendo President Satoru Iwata admitted that this Christmas period for crucial to Nintendo and the longterm health of the Wii and DS. While remaining hopeful that things will turn out OK, he and the company seem to be somewhat pessimistic and are preparing for the worst.
However, in a recent interview with IndustryGamers, Wedbush Morgan Securities analyst Michael Pachter (numero uno crystal ball-gazer), stated that he thinks the Wii will win this holiday season. What’s more, falling DS sales are just a blip that will be forgotten once the 3DS launches.
He said:
I don’t think that Nintendo’s holiday season is in trouble at all. The Wii has dropped from first to third, but the new models for Xbox 360 and the launch of PS3 Move had something to do with that, and it’s likely only temporary. I think that Mr. Iwata is right when he says that the Wii is more of a holiday purchase, as the core audience has long been satisfied, and the more casual audience comprises the much larger portion of the addressable market. With effective marketing, a slew of great games, and some likely support at retail, I expect the Wii to once again become the best selling console in November and December.
The DS remains challenged by the iPod Touch, and the new XL and regular DSi models haven’t really captured anyone’s imagination. Also, the impending launch of the 3DS has to have some continuing impact on sales of the existing DS models, but I’m quite certain that once the 3DS launches, handheld sales will rebound nicely.
Maybe it is a little churlish to suggest Nintendo is in trouble in any way, because it’s still doing great. But I’m not convinced there are enough people out there who haven’t bought a Wii and that are going to this Christmas to make the Nintendo console number one this holiday. We’ll know come the New Year who was correct…
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